Risk and reward live in many activities. Few companies are as vocal about it as the entertainment industry. Wealth creation is the most important portfolio goal for most investors, due to the risks of unexpected financial emergencies, large planned and overly deliberate expenses. preparation for delayed retirement. The expansion of longevity through advances in bioscience technology compounds these latter financial shortfalls for many individual investors.
Difficult times in loose companies can attract the attention of depressed investors, but no matter how bad the market averages seem to be, there are always a few stocks that show just how good things can be, even now.
We monitor over 4,000 stocks, ETFs, REITs and indices each market day to see what derivatives market sharks in options, futures, swaps and other exotics identify as ways to turn certain parties from uncertainty to certainty. What weighted investors are willing to pay for insurance to get there indicates how far prices are still likely to go.
On more than half of these monitored issues, past history paints periods of rewarding picks with very believable odds. More than two decades of daily observation helps to know which ones and when to believe what they say.
Today’s Survey of Over 4,000 Stocks Reveals Hundreds of Stocks Exercise the Market-Maker [MM] capital liquidity capabilities, some of which, such as Monarch Casino & Resort (NASDAQ: MCRI) reveal strong, previously reliable indications of near-term capital gains ahead.
Opportunity target today
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel and casino in Reno, Nevada. The company also owns and operates Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk in Black Hawk, Colorado. As of December 31, 2021, its Atlantis Casino Resort Spa had approximately 61,000 square feet of casino space; 818 rooms and suites, approximately 1,400 slot machines and video poker; around 37 table games, including blackjack, craps, roulette and others; a running and sports book; a 24-hour live keno lounge; and a poker room. Additionally, its Monarch Casino Resort Spa Black Hawk featured approximately 60,000 square feet of casino space; approximately 1,100 slot machines; approximately 40 board games; 10 bars and lounges; 4 dining options; 516 rooms and suites; banquet and meeting rooms and other support facilities. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Reno, Nevada.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Big Picture: Risks vs. Rewards
We have grouped MCRI with other similar gaming and resort companies that are frequently compared by individual investors. The predictions implied by the MM hedging actions facilitating bulk volume trades ordered by the big dollar funds provide a likely future price outlook for comparison. Actual market outcomes for these stocks following previous guidance with today’s higher forecast proportions add perspective to valuations.
The trade-offs here are between short-term upside price gains (green horizontal scale) considered worth protecting by market makers with short positions in each of the stocks, and past actual price declines experienced during of the holding of these shares (red vertical scale) . Both scales are percent change from zero to 25%.
The intersections of these coordinates with the numbered positions are identified by the stock symbols in the blue field to the right. The S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) Market Index Compromise Standard Is In Place , an unusually high level of decline. Our primary interest is in MCRI at .
The dotted diagonal line marks the points of equal upward price change predictions derived from Market-Maker [MM] hedging actions, and actual worst-case price declines from positions that could have been taken as a result of earlier MA predictions like today’s.
This map is a good starting point, but it can only cover some of the investment characteristics that must often influence an investor’s choice of where to invest their capital. The table in Figure 3 covers the above considerations and several more.
The main questions for all alternatives are “how likely are these outcomes to occur” and “can their impact be improved?” »
Figure 2 presents the MM price range predictions [B] for [C] for the candidate alternative investments in Figure 1, along with the results [ I ] of their last 5 years of daily forecasts with the same proportions [G] of today’s up-to-down range index [RI] prospects. The numerical value of RI is that percentage of the whole range below the current market price.
Contributing to this comparison are the demonstrated chances of a successful profit forecast in the column [H]its complement of 100 – H, or frequency of loss, size of net gain achieved [I] and the size of the worst loss [F] experienced during previous holding periods such that, when weighted appropriately [O] and [P]they produce the Net of [Q]. Respecting the power of composition, [Q] converted to basis points per day [J] of capital commitment to [R] has a very comparable figure of merit (of) for investment preferences whose primary objective is to build readily liquidable capital to meet emergency, retirement or other planned needs.
By its use as a ranking, the merit factor (fom) [R] for each line provides an additional measure of attraction, emphasizing the capital gain potential for MCRI. Since [H] odds on wins versus losses and [J] impact of holding periods [R]the sample sizes from which past results are drawn require careful consideration, but are comparable across all types of equity investments.
Also please note the comparison of these stocks with the S&P 500 Index ETF and with the average of the 3203 stocks for which we are compiling the population-specific forecasts here. From this population, we use the dimensions shown in Figure 2 to rank the most promising and historically attested few stocks right now, each based on past MM forecasts with both up and down balances like today.
Recent trends in MCRI forecasts by market makers
The recent weakness in MCRI’s stock price approximates much of the equity market. Apparently, it caught the attention of some institutional investment organizations. Over the past couple of days, their buy orders have supported heightened expectations for prices ahead.
The current upside target of $82 offers a forward-looking gain of +20%, but its current price of $69 is at the bottom of market professionals’ expectations of $69-$83.
The small “thumbnail” image at the bottom of Figure 3 shows the frequency of the past 5 years of daily MCRI beach indices [RI]. At its current level of 3 (near the expected low of the range), almost all subsequent IRs, and their prices, have clearly been higher. In the past, there have been 19 of the 1261 daily forecasts with IRs of 3.
All but two of the 19 met their high-end forecasts. The historical odds of hitting past goals was 89 out of 100. And their average gains, net of those 2, were +15% in 37 market days (7 weeks) of capital commitment to the business – a rate of more than 170% per year. No guarantees, just a good chance for a big rate of return by being an active investor.
Comparison of Monarch Casino & Resort with its industry competitors makes it a good choice for the industry’s most desirable short-term capital gain vehicle at this point.